The Weather---A very serious Post

OG_Blues

Guitar Geezer
Actually, wind power is one of the biggest growth industries in the world.
In fact, 39% of power in Denmark is produced by wind and worldwide the total production is a shade under 600,000 MW.

As for solar, it went up by 50% last year worldwide and now accounts for a little over 300,000 MW.

Both may seem small but in reality they are becoming more and more mainstream.
And as with all technologies, the greater the demand, the more refinement and the lower the cost. If these trends keep going it's possible that wind and solar may eclipse many "traditional" energy sources before the end of the century.
There is danger in just citing statistics like this and extrapolating some future result. They do not tell the whole story. It also does not automatically follow that just because something (anything) is becoming more prevalent, that it is inherently economically sustainable to stand by itself without considering the whole picture and the current political environment relative to it (like subsidies, grants, etc).
For a good look at the broader set of factors that influence the increase in alternative energy sources, this is a good read:
http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2011/01/27/the-economics-of-wind-power/#sthash.11CoQS8V.dpbs
 

JPsuff

Blackstar Artist
There is danger in just citing statistics like this and extrapolating some future result. They do not tell the whole story. It also does not automatically follow that just because something (anything) is becoming more prevalent, that it is inherently economically sustainable to stand by itself without considering the whole picture and the current political environment relative to it (like subsidies, grants, etc).
For a good look at the broader set of factors that influence the increase in alternative energy sources, this is a good read:
http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2011/01/27/the-economics-of-wind-power/#sthash.11CoQS8V.dpbs


OK, so the American Nuclear Society writes a cautionary article about the sustainability of alternative energy technology.

Does the word "agenda" come to mind?
 

OG_Blues

Guitar Geezer
OK, so the American Nuclear Society writes a cautionary article about the sustainability of alternative energy technology.

Does the word "agenda" come to mind?
You can say the exact same thing about those that cite glowing statistics about wind and/or solar. Don't they have an agenda? I knew that would be pointed out, but I think the article was written pretty objectively, and did not indicate that there was no place for other energy sources - it was more about the circumstances or conditions under which different options makes the most economical sense, and also points out that the playing field is ever changing with the political winds. I am not against alternative energy sources, and I have great concerns over what we do with nuclear waste, so I am not pushing any agenda myself - other than to make my original point that "facts" in isolation should not be used to reach conclusions or make projections, and that is but one article of many that would support that.
Huge subsidies have been provided to jump start alternative energy technologies. That is usually a necessary evil for progress to made, but new technologies do need to ultimately prove that they are sustainable economically without help. I'd really like to see some additional options besides wind and solar, neither of which is independently reliable for our full power needs.
 

david moon

Attempting the Blues
Here's an interesting site where you can see in real time the UK energy usage from different sources

http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

Right now wind is having a good day.The current mix is:

Nuclear 28%
CCGT (gas turbine) 26%
Wind 28%
Coal 0%
Solar 0%
Imports from other countries about 10%

It's a good day for wind. A few days ago it was contributing zero. Nuclear is running at a steady rate to provide the baseline load. Gas turbine is highly variable to meet the variations in demand and the unreliability of wind and solar. Coal is brought on line now and then- I don't know why.

UK power.png
 

PapaRaptor

Father Vyvian O'Blivion
Staff member
Then there's palm oil for "biodeisel".

And corn for ethanol.

From the article: In 2000, over 90% of the U.S. corn crop went to feed people and livestock, many in undeveloped countries, with less than 5% used to produce ethanol. In 2013, however, 40% went to produce ethanol, 45% was used to feed livestock, and only 15% was used for food and beverage ....
In 2007, the global price of corn doubled as a result of an explosion in ethanol production in the U.S.
Because corn is the most common animal feed and has many other uses in the food industry, the price of milk, cheese, eggs, meat, corn-based sweeteners and cereals increased as well. World grain reserves dwindled to less than two months, the lowest level in over 30 years.

Well damn! That explains why Jack Daniels and Jim Beam got so expensive! :Beer:
 

JPsuff

Blackstar Artist
You can say the exact same thing about those that cite glowing statistics about wind and/or solar. Don't they have an agenda? I knew that would be pointed out, but I think the article was written pretty objectively, and did not indicate that there was no place for other energy sources - it was more about the circumstances or conditions under which different options makes the most economical sense, and also points out that the playing field is ever changing with the political winds. I am not against alternative energy sources, and I have great concerns over what we do with nuclear waste, so I am not pushing any agenda myself - other than to make my original point that "facts" in isolation should not be used to reach conclusions or make projections, and that is but one article of many that would support that.
Huge subsidies have been provided to jump start alternative energy technologies. That is usually a necessary evil for progress to made, but new technologies do need to ultimately prove that they are sustainable economically without help. I'd really like to see some additional options besides wind and solar, neither of which is independently reliable for our full power needs.


As far as I know, "Statista.com" has no agenda. They're simply a statistical website.

Alternative energy is still in its infancy yet it is making a mark nonetheless. For example, the 600,000 MW capacity for wind may very well be an arguable statistic but it's also a statistic that didn't even exist at the turn of the century.

And traditional energy has it's share of hidden costs as well such as the cost of dealing with nuclear waste both in monetary as well as environmental terms.

Wind and solar don't create waste.

All new technologies have had their fair share of obstacles to overcome and wind and solar are no different. But they will be overcome and when that happens the progress and proliferation of alternative energy will be exponential.
 

JPsuff

Blackstar Artist
Really, have you heard of the "rare earth" elements needed for the magnets in wind turbines?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/mos...er-experiment-Pollution-disastrous-scale.html


Ok and once they've been built, they're built.

But after that there's no spent fuel rods that have to be removed, packaged, transported, buried and remain deadly for a few thousand years.

Look, everything has a cost but some things cost more in terms of environmental headaches than other things. Solar panels and wind turbines may have their issues but neither is nearly as environmentally impacting as oil, coal, natural gas or nuclear.

That's a simple fact no matter how many studies are done.
 

MarkDyson

Blues Hound Wannabe
...as with all technologies, the greater the demand, the more refinement and the lower the cost.

Not interested in getting into the weeds as to how this process has been playing out, but I do like knowing there's a process, warts and all. To my mind the quote above is the telling one with respect to my opinions. It's why I voted with my dollars for the Prius, knowing it was far from a silver bullet: people show interest when industry takes a chance like that and industry will continue to research and refine the concepts. If they're met with "meh" then nothing changes.

Went solar because I saw it as the best of the current lot. Plan to add a mini wind turbine as finances allow, because I agree all my "alternative energy" eggs in one basket is currently banking on something unreliable. I'll be adding battery storage to help smooth out the energy flow and cover down periods (like a couple of feet of snow before I've had time to clear the panels) when that tech matures enough for me to be interested. One stool, many legs.

My hope is if I keep voting with my dollars, and others do the same, industry will continue to be motivated to roll with these ideas. Maybe one day all of this will be prime time and we'll look back on the "old ways" with bemusement. Maybe not. In the meantime I'll cash in on the shorter-term rewards of diversifying my energy sources.
 

Shodai

Blues Junior
Could be- unintended consequences and all that. Hey, but if that's what it takes to save the planet...

I know what you meant was "if the unintended consequences of increased pricies for Jack Daniels is what it takes to save the planet, so be it"

What I read was, "drink more Jack Daniels to save the planet"

And, of course, being the socially and environmentally conscious type of guy that I am, I will be diligent in trying to do my part.

2c1bf2bc-7404-4a47-acf2-5a77a806e522.jpg
That's my story, and I'm sticking to it!
 

MarkDyson

Blues Hound Wannabe
I know what you meant was "if the unintended consequences of increased pricies for Jack Daniels is what it takes to save the planet, so be it"

What I read was, "drink more Jack Daniels to save the planet"

THIS! Except between those two I tend to be more of a Jim Beam guy. :Beer:
 

OG_Blues

Guitar Geezer
Look, everything has a cost but some things cost more in terms of environmental headaches than other things. Solar panels and wind turbines may have their issues but neither is nearly as environmentally impacting as oil, coal, natural gas or nuclear.

That's a simple fact no matter how many studies are done.
Yes, this is true - no argument whatsoever.
However, I'm still struggling to understand what your real point is with respect to wind and solar.
What is the long term result that you envision, or would like to see - that fits in with the real world realities of the entire power generation / consumption equation?
I am asking a simple, non-confrontational, honest question.
 

JPsuff

Blackstar Artist
Yes, this is true - no argument whatsoever.
However, I'm still struggling to understand what your real point is with respect to wind and solar.
What is the long term result that you envision, or would like to see - that fits in with the real world realities of the entire power generation / consumption equation?
I am asking a simple, non-confrontational, honest question.


The key to all of this isn't so much power generation but energy storage.
Whenever I discuss solar power with anyone, I point out that for solar to become a truly stand-alone energy source you'd have to have the storage capacity to power a typical home for about five days without benefit of sunlight.

As for wind, the same problem exists -- what to do when the wind isn't blowing.
But all of those problems are solvable provided there is sufficient demand for that solution.

Take the battery powered hand drill for example.
I remember when the first Makita battery powered drill first appeared in the mid 80's. It was only seven volts with a single battery and single charger and the tool itself was a simple "on-off" affair (no variable speeds). If you were lucky, you might be able to drive perhaps two-dozen screws before needing to recharge the battery. But the interest in the concept was so strong, especially in the contracting world, that in less than ten years the voltage jumped to fourteen, the drills were variable speed and kits were offered with multiple batteries and two-slot chargers.
Today twenty-four volts is common and the battery life has extended to the point where entire projects can be finished with a single battery and the reserve battery serves as a ready backup for harder use situations.

The point is that the market responded to the demand and the versatility and efficiency improved exponentially and I see no reason why solar and wind can't do the same given the proper stimulus to do so which of course is the demand.
Right now, solar relies predominantly on visible sunlight, but the capacity for taking advantage of what some people refer to as "dark solar" (the ability to draw energy from non-visible light spectra such as infra-red and ultra-violet so that sunny days are not necessary) exists but needs a greater demand and consumer confidence to fully emerge.
This goes to the point that Mark raised about "voting with dollars" -- that a willingness by the public to invest in alternative energy will justify the costs of the R&D required to make those energy sources more efficient and less burdensome from a start-up point of view.

But the fossil fuel (and to a lesser extent nuclear) lobbies are fighting it tooth and nail.

Take Tesla for example.
In order to actually purchase a Tesla vehicle, one can not simply call them and order a car. It must be done through a third-party broker.

Why?

Because the auto-dealers lobby (with the support of the fossil fuel industries) has influenced politicians to pass laws prohibiting Tesla from selling cars in the same way as all other auto dealers. For instance, Tesla is banned by law from opening any brick-and-mortar dealership because the auto dealers association doesn't want the public to be able to compare a Tesla to whatever they are selling on a side-by-side basis for fear that the public may opt for the Tesla which would threaten the current automotive the fossil-fuel-driven paradigm.

I believe the technology exists or is close to becoming extant to switch over to alternative energy sources and products in a huge way but is being hamstrung by fossil fuel politics and money. The fossil fuel industry knows that given the demand, the technologies needed to make alternative energy a true reality will spur the investment in the R&D necessary to make alternative energy efficient and sustainable. And just like that Makita drill, it will rapidly move from being a novelty to a way of life.

And that scares the crap out of the 1%.
 

ervjohns

Blues Junior
So is that based on a mandated tie-in tariff where the utility has to pay you a fixed price for whatever you produce whether they need it or not?
That is called "Net Metering" and there is a limit for residential customers of most utilities.
 

Rancid Rumpboogie

Blues Mangler
But the fossil fuel (and to a lesser extent nuclear) lobbies are fighting it tooth and nail.
That's because it is a matter of survival for them. And I truly believe they will stop at nothing to suppress any real threat to their survival including the murder of people, especially inventors / scientists who refuse to sell out to them and who actually gain any kind of traction.
 

Silicon Valley Tom

It makes me happpy to play The Blues!
I cannot drink Jim Beam (a Japanese owned company), or Jack Daniels because I cannot stand the taste. Now, if you want to “help the planet”, and allow corn to be used as ethanol to power cars, I would suggest you drink Irish Whiskey or even Scottish Whisky, as it is made from barley. We Americans use corn (and call it Bourbon) as it is cheap and with us, it is all about the bottom line! ;)

Our energy creation in California is interesting:

http://www.energy.ca.gov/almanac/electricity_data/total_system_power.html

You can find all kinds of numbers as to how many people are employed in the power industry. A recent one I found was 70,000 coal miners, and 450,000 work in the soar industry.

In 1982 I went solar for one of my hobbies. Amateur Radio. I set up a receiver and 5 watt transmitter with solar power. I then said that I fully expect our local power company, PG&E, to have California create a law, stating that PG&E owns the light and energy created by the sun, and they would soon put a meter on all solar power and charge you for it! I have faith in the abilities of the PG&E! It may take time but I am sure that my idea will become reality. :)

Tom
 

MarkDyson

Blues Hound Wannabe
...for solar to become a truly stand-alone energy source you'd have to have the storage capacity to power a typical home for about five days without benefit of sunlight.

Sorry to condense your essay down to a single line; I know it's not aimed at me and I haven't been asking the questions where the full response would match. I just wanted to reiterate this point, as it's my particular pain point in my journey to making my home and workplace independent of the grid. The PowerWall is a huge step forward and, as we know, the Tesla motor company exists mainly to provide Musk a test platform for his battery research, which is what he really cares about.

The Wall can't power my home for nearly long enough to be viable, lacking both in total power and in duration, not unless I bought a metric crap ton of them at a cost I don't care to contemplate.

But, with that tech we're a tiny bit closer to overcoming that main obstacle cited above, and we're getting there thanks to forward-thinking people in industry, not by government fiat. :Beer:
 
Top